The optimizing interdisciplinary MERGE model meant mainly for quantitative estimation of outcomes of various nature protection strategy is one of the tools used for studying the climate change problems. Components of a model are the economical and power module, climatic module and module of damage assessment. The main attention in work is paid to the MERGE model adaptation to a world economy current state, and analysis of possible trajectories of economic development of Russia and studying of consequences of country participation in initiatives for emission abatement of greenhouse gases at the various assumptions on dynamics of regional economic and power indicators. As a source of model scenarios of development of the Russian economy, the forecast of long-term socioeconomic development of the country for the period up to 2030 is used. They made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (namely, the conservative, innovative and forced scenarios defined by different models of state policy for ensuring macroeconomic balance are considered).

One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green GDP representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green GDP. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the economic development of Russia and the indicators of their ecological efficiency. Calculations show that Russia has reserves allowing its participation in the nature protection initiatives consisting in the nonexceedance of the emissions levels of 1990 by 2020−2025. At the same time, a goal of increasing the ecological efficiency of the Russian GDP is relevant and demands to address this matter urgently. We suppose that modelling results may be in demand by the competent bodies taking managerial decisions.

One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green gross domestic product representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green gross domestic product. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the economic development of Russia and the indicators of their ecological efficiency. Calculations show that Russia has reserves allowing its participation in the nature protection initiatives consisting in the non-exceedance of the emissions levels of 1990 by 2020−2025. At the same time, a goal of increasing the ecological efficiency of the Russian gross domestic product is relevant and demands to address this matter urgently. We suppose that modelling results may be in demand by the competent bodies taking managerial decisions.