This paper presents a dynamic multiregional model of labor migration in continuous time within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model can predict the dynamics of migration flows as well as the dynamics of economic effects of migration simultaneously for host regions and source countries. Thanks to liberalization of the migratory legislation of the Russian Federation in 2007, the model can be used for Russian regions and CIS states, which citizens were granted entry without a visa and a simplified procedure of employment in Russia. Employing the model to statistical data, forecast trajectories of migration flows to Russian regions from CIS states have been received for the period since 2010 to 2016. The predicted migration looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.

The essential problems of current international labor migration raising the need to forecast interdependent labor market and migration processes in a region for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy in Russia are considered. A model for the prediction of migration flows as determined by wage differentials, distances between populations of the regions as well as wages and unemployment, which come from the impact of migration on the availability of jobs at the labor market with search-matching frictions for source and host regions is presented in the framework of search and matching theory. Applying the model to statistical data, the forecast for labor migration flows to regions of Russia from CIS countries, as well as its effects on regional labor markets for 2012-2021 is maid. Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy are given on the basis of the forecast.

Russia’s reasons for the continuing need of the foreign labor influx were researched. Forecast of the interdependent labor market development and migration processes in the regions of Russian is proposed as a scientific basis for better regulation of the international labor migration. The genesis of approaches to migration modeling, revealing the lack of tools for the simultaneous prediction of migration processes and the labor market was studied. A developed model complex allows to predict: 1) migration flows, determined by the wages level difference and the distance between the country of origin and the destination regions, number of potential migrants in countries of origin and the number of migrants who arrived earlier in the regions of destination; 2) migrants’ employment in the region, considering changes in the job availability as a result of the migrants influx to the regional labor markets, characterized by search tensions; 3) the level of wages in the region, considering the bargaining power of the worker. The application of the model complex to the statistical data resulted in obtaining of the forecast flows of migrants in the Russian regions from the CIS and their influence on the regional labor markets development up to 2020. Based on this forecast, the recommendations to improve the management of the international labor migration in the Russian regions were developed.

In the article, the contemporary issues of the reproduction of the Russian population, their reasons, and state policy toward them are considered. Relevance of the task solution of assessment of the most expected birth rate dynamics of the Russian population in future in the conditions of low norms of the parenthood status taking into account the influence of government measures for the birth rate stimulation is proved. In order to achieve this objective, on the basis of the behavior probability distribution function of crude birth rate, the probabilistic assessment of the future birth rate dynamics of the Russian population was conducted. On the basis of the modernized Hirst method, two expected dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate were constructed: the first trajectory corresponds to the scenario at which the value of crude birth rate will be in the range of 8-10,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,182), including the negative external impact, the second trajectory will be in the range of 13-16,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,618), including the positive external impact. In spite of the fact that these scenarios are quite different, the dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate predicted according to them during the period of 2015-2041 that corresponds to the time of the reliable prediction are almost identical. The analysis of the received results enabled to conclude that the state population policy cannot affect the future dynamics of the birth rate due mainly to to the conjunctural changes.These conclusions confirm the intellectual vested interest of the academic circles that government regulation of a demographic situation in Russia has to be aimed, first of all, at the health improvement and increase of the expected life interval of the population.