Arhive: #2 2020
NEW RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ECONOMY PROBLEMS
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Currently, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is at a critical juncture in its development. Five years after the agreement came into force, but there are still serious economic contradictions between the key participants of the Union, as the achieved integration effects are quite ambiguous. Due to unfavourable external conditions, the positive trade effects of the implementation of the EAEU have been very limited. Only Armenia, of all member countries, has benefited most. However, an increase in medium and high value-added products led to positive changes in the commodity structure of mutual trade. For assessing the degree and nature of the impact of the Russian Federation on the economies of the EAEU member countries, we identified and analysed such factors as trade in goods and services, migrant remittances and foreign direct investment from Russia in the period 2011–2018. In general, the reduced remittances from Russia and a decline in mutual trade in goods decreased the significance of the Russian factor in the development of the members of the Union. At the same time, trade in services and direct investments are more sustainable, indicating the high potential for the development of cooperation in these areas. Influenced by changing external factors, such as volatile fuel and raw materials prices, different macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the EAEU is unable to ensure sustainable growth in mutual trade. We have identified a variety of aspects hindering the progressive development of the Eurasian integration amid global uncertainty. They include the priority of the national economic interests of the member countries, the remaining structural economic differences, trade barriers and restrictions, the weakening of Russia as an integration driver, as well as increasing competition from the EU and China.
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Author A. V. Kotov,Implementing the Strategy of Spatial Development of the Russian Federation involves various regional policy measures and requires choosing the most appropriate tools. The issue gains importance in case of combining the search for additional sources of growth with an integrated system for assessing the efficiency of the existing measures. Admittedly, such system in the Russian Federation is still in its formation. Therefore, in order to implement public policy, it is crucial to critically analyse the most significant aspects of the methodology for assessing the efficiency. The concept of «efficiency», apart from efficiency itself, includes he performance, impact, and usability of the tool. The assessment of the efficiency varies in different countries, as it is not a single practice that can be applied regardless of geographical and historical context. The paper substantiates the idea that the assessment of the efficienc y includes th e examinatio n o f social , cultura l an d politica l elements . The assessment is a flexi ble management tool, not just an instrument demonstrating the reduction of regional differences. Drawing on the principles of spatial hierarchy, the paper suggests assessing the efficiency of regional policy tools at the macro-, meso- and micro-regional levels. The assessment focuses on solving four large classes of applied problems: provision of public goods, forms of the spatial organisation of the economy, implementation of regional and macro-regional programs, and the development of large projects. The characteristics of the assessment of the efficiency depend on the choice of either endogenous or exogenous growth theory. Additionally, the assessment of the efficiency of a variety of programs (multi-criteria evaluation) specifically differs from the assessment of individual programs of spatial development. It is advisable to consider the practice of assessment in a broader context, not just as a task of financial and management control. The research findings can be used for creating an integrated system that provides feedback, organises the consequences of regional policies and the effects of achieving national development goals.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
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The use of sanctions as means of coercion and motivation is not always effective. Ruling elites have an ability to shift the burden on less protected population of the country despite the risk of social unrest. The paper aims to perform an empirical analysis of the impact of economic sanctions on the population of the target countries in general and its individual groups in particular. We test three hypotheses: about the negative impact of economic and financial sanctions on the welfare of the poorest people, about the nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income inequality, and about the impact of country characteristics and the duration of sanctions on income distribution. Having applied econometric modelling to panel data, we found that economic and financial sanctions are detrimental to the low-income population and inappropriate for policies aimed at reducing income inequality. Indicators of economic growth can be linked with both an increase and a decrease in economic inequality due to the nonlinear form of their dependence. Regional characteristics of the countries of Africa, North America and South America determine their propensity to a higher level of inequality, as well as the long duration of sanctions. Finally, sanctions are not harming the richest people, as they are able to shift the burden of sanctions on the rest of the population. The research is relevant in practice, as its results can be taken into consideration when developing a sanctions policy to minimize harmful consequences for the civilian population.
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The transformation of information into a key economic resource is accompanied with a wide dissemination of information technologies. Information and communication technologies (ICT), software products, computers and telecommunication equipment are already integrated into the structure of all economics activities. The intensification of this process over the past decade has generated a great interest of the Russian academia in such phenomena as “digitalization of society” and “digital economy”. In the article, we discuss and define the essence of the phenomenon of «digital economy». Digital technologies, introduced into socio-economic and technological processes, will certainly be involved in the generation of the value added of the final product (service), regardless of its purpose (type of activity and sector of the economy). Although information and communication products belong to the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, each economic activity develops, implements and uses its own solutions in the field of ICT, “digital labour” and “digital capital”, which are not directly analysed and measured. In this regard, there is a need to improve approaches to assessing and measuring the volume of the digital economy at different territorial levels, including regional economies. We propose a methodology for measuring the digital economy at the regional level and test it, using the economic and statistical analysis of data for the Perm region of Russia. We have structured the digital economy in the region and identified the core of ICT, the outer tier of ICT and the digital sector outside of ICT. We have discovered it appropriate to measure the digital economy of a region or a country through a system of indicators: ICT costs, the number and share of employment in the digital economy, the volume and share of digital production in the economy, digital labour force, digital production capacity.
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In the XXI century, a strategic approach to the management of individual territories development is becoming increasingly popular worldwide. The creation of scenarios and targets for large urban agglomerations is the most difficult aspect of strategic planning, as the complex structure of economy and social relations generates a variety of interests of different population groups. For such territories, it is inadvisable to use a unified planning template, because the conditions and demands of local communities require individual planning process and approaches. In this context, we decided to compare the development strategies of the Russian city Ekaterinburg and the English city Birmingham. Firstly, they have similar industrial, social and cultural, and demographic characteristics. Secondly, both cities strategic development plans are aimed at increasing their individualization. We demonstrate the necessity and feasibility of individual city development strategies, suggesting a methodology for its creation. Development strategies vary depending on technological and social progress. While technological progress increases the productive forces of cities, social progress ensures individualization of their development strategies by creating specific mentality, sociocultural, ethical and other values. We hypothesise that individual city development strategies depend on the territorial specificity of social progress, based on the needs of a city’s residents. Thus, the emergence of new needs requires updated strategies, adjusting resources in accordance with these new needs. Based on the study and comparison of strategic plans of two cities, we have suggested methodological approaches to the individualization and implementation of city development strategies. We have determined a system of measures ensuring individualization. It includes the establishment of a list of needs, an analysis of the structure and volume of resources, as well as of the ways to satisfy specific needs for achieving the selected goal. For updating a strategy, it is necessary to consider both growing needs and resources to satisfy them. We have concluded that the individualization of city development strategies improves itself through its implementation and focus on satisfying the needs of a specific community, which depend on the characteristics of its social progress. We have proved that the mentality of residents and their social imprinting greatly influence the individualization of cities and their strategies. The scientific, technological and socio-cultural progress increase the individuality of a city. The research results can be used by public authorities and local governments while creating and implementing strategic development documents.
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The article examines the economic nature and scope of competitive cooperation between territories, which is becoming an increasingly important economic phenomenon. We hypothesise that competition and cooperation between territories are not mutually exclusive, but complementary. This fact leads to the emergence and development of competitive cooperation. Additionally, we define the factors that, on the one hand, boost the development of competitive cooperation, and, on the other hand, hinder its formation. The paper identifies a number of features characterising the evolution of competitive cooperation between territories: cooperation is specifically time-limited; any cooperation has inherent risk; its formation and implementation always involve certain financial, intellectual, labour and other costs. We emphasise that the existence of relevant projects is an essential prerequisite for the establishment of territorial cooperation. Furthermore, the examination of the positive experience of territories that have already successfully implemented joint projects plays an important role in the formation and development of competitive cooperation. In this context, the active use of benchmarking techniques can be of significant help. We pay a particular attention to the fact that cooperation is always accompanied by certain self-limitations of territories, meaning that partner territories have to sacrifice something in order to reach consensus. The results of the expert surveys allowed us to clarify potential results of competitive cooperation in the Russian Federation. We assessed the willingness of territories (regions, municipalities) to cooperate. What is more, we formulated the proposals on the selection of the most promising forms and directions of competitive cooperation between territories, focusing on the establishment and maintenance of confidence in the economy, which is the basis of cooperation. The research results can be used for designing and implementing the strategies of the socio-economic development of regions and municipalities in the modern economic space.
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Technology entrepreneurship is one of key research areas in the modern economy as fast-growing companies significantly contribute to the economic growth of the regions and Russia in general. Identifying factors influencing the emergence and success of start-ups could give the tools to support and stimulate entrepreneurship in this field. In this research, we collected and analysed data on technological start-ups founded in the past decade. We focused on identifying global start-ups, in which at least one of the founders was educated in Russia. The final sample includes more than 1000 start-ups of Russian origin. During the study, we discovered the main trends in the educational, geographical and sectorial paths of start-up founders. We hypothesise that the promotion of technical education in the regions, and the use of information technologies in business play a significant role in the development of technology entrepreneurship. The econometric analysis allowed us to determine regional factors influencing the emergence of successful start-ups in the region, as well as regional factors affecting the intention to establish a technology start-up in a country or a region differing from the place where they had obtained education. In the regions close to Moscow and relatively developed regions, the level of salaries for programmers is of significance. An entrepreneur’s desire to change a region or a country can be affected by the level of inventive activity in a region, the number of students of mathematical specialties, the distance to Moscow. Future studies can focus on a country analysis of the success factors of technology start-ups, an analysis of the world’s most attractive entrepreneurial start-up ecosystems, and the place of Russian technology entrepreneurs on the map of successful global start-ups.
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The training of digital economy specialists requires new approaches to the educational process, which should contain updated training materials and flexible teaching formats and methods. Moreover, it should create competencies for working in the conditions of uncertainty and maintain readiness to solve complex problems in the process of professional activity. Close integration of scientific and educational activities is the only possible approach to attain this goal. Thus, we suggested a mechanism for rapidly transferring the latest results of scientific research to the educational process at universities in order to organize anticipatory learning. We demonstrated the organizational principles, content and methods of this mechanism on the example of managerial training. We have substantiated and described the research area «Pre-emptive management in rapidly developing industries and sectors», as well as the key provisions of anticipatory learning and its knowledge base. Further, we have discussed the possibilities of applying the technology platforms for designing branded educational products with flexible modular structure. Thanks to such structure, the training programs function as a continuous conveyor for continuous competency building. In the paper, we present a conceptual project and an operational mechanism of a university-based scientific and educational platform. Testing on the Ural Federal University (UrFU) has proved the efficiency of the suggested methods and validity of the research results. The proposed platform can be used for establishing world-class Research and Educational Centres in the region aimed at developing global research and industrial cooperation in order to create breakthrough innovations.
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Author Z. G. Mirzekhanova,The implementation of “Eastern Policy” increases economic activity in the Russian Far East. According to this policy, it is necessary to create and develop territories of advanced development (TADs), taking into account modern development requirements and the green economy concepts. The paper emphasizes that the region’s the geographical location and the established economic structure determine certain environmental conditions for implementing the green economy model. From the environmental viewpoint, the study shows the current situation and the benefits of applying global scenarios while creating the Far Eastern TADs, considering development characteristics of the region and lessons learned from the green model application. The transition to the green economy contributes to rethinking regional development strategies that enable ecosystem approach to the economic activity. . Thus, it is necessary to adjust the shaping of TADs in the Far East. The research identifies environmental preconditions for the structural formation of TADs based on the modern development concepts and the region’s current situation. The analysis of the activities of 115 enterprises operating in the Far Eastern TADs demonstrates their industrial structure, as well as the organisations’ compliance with the priorities of the green economy. A significant share of the enterprises does not correspond to the concepts of the model due to the raw material specialization, underutilized resource potential, and ignoring the requirement to use green innovations. The research results are useful for solving the problem of sustainable development of the region in the context of global requirements, as well as for creating an adequate environmental policy.
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The paper aims to examine the spatial patterns of the distribution of the shadow economy in Russia, as well as to assess the correlation between the scale of the shadow economy and crime statistics. The methodology of spatial data analysis includes three steps. Firstly, we calculated the global Moran’s index and established its criteria of relevance. Secondly, we identified clusters of regions using Moran scatterplot. Thirdly, we conducted a correlation analysis of data on the shadow economy (for the period until 2016) and crime statistics (for the period until 2017, considering a time lag between a crime and its detection). The research results confirmed the correlation between the regional shadow economies. The correlated of the spatial cooperation of regions and the scale of the shadow economy is negative: a decrease in shadow economy leads to an increase in cooperation, and vice versa. In the considered period, spatial interaction gains more importance. The shadow economy is present in more than half of the Russian regions, located amid similar entities. Only a quarter of the regions are relatively unaffected by the shadow economies of their neighbours. Thus, we have established the configuration of spatial distribution of the shadow economy in Russia, demonstrating that such economic activity prevails in the western part of the country. This area is surrounded by the “transitional” zone where there is a risk of the spread of the shadow economy. Additionally, we identified isolated centres of shadow activity in Siberia and the Far East, as well as the zones of relative well-being. The findings demonstrate the difficulty in assessing the scale of the regional shadow economy using indirect and model methods due to the regions’ interaction. Moreover, the obtained results argue for the necessity of a targeted approach for creating policies aimed at preventing the regional shadow economy.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
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The article addresses the difference between regional inflation rates, and criteria that determine such variations. Moreover, it examines whether inflation differences in the Russian regions significantly affect a unified monetary policy targetting a 4 per cent inflation. Using panel econometric methods with instrumental variables, we identified the factors creating regional inflation difference: a) output gap, b) inflation expectations, c) exchange rate pass-through, d) and regional price convergence. Then, we explained how these factors influence regional inflation, using the modern theoretical models that are based on the neo-Keynesian logic. Additionally, we discussed the problems caused by regional inflation differences. Since the convergence of price levels to the average Russian level is the key factor influencing regional inflation differences, such differences do not constitute a problem for the unified monetary policy aimed at a 4% inflation target. In the study, we have determined the causes of inflation differences in the Russian regions, the majority of which result from the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The obtained results can be applied for developing regional economic policies aimed at synchronizing inflation in the Russian regions, as well as for modelling the consequences of monetary policy for regional economies.
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The article examines the conditions for establishing a free educational environment that acts as a basis for the development of intellectual human capital and links main social sectors. This topic is relevant for both the Republic of Armenia, Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union. There is a certain imbalance, as modern higher education is inconsistent with the challenges caused by the spread of new digital technologies in the global educational environment. Such wide dissemination enhances the internationalization of education, increases the competitiveness of the higher education system, and affects the development of human capital. Intellectual human capital is at the core of the social organism, while education is the basis for its development. In this regard, we identified the important tasks facing the higher education system of the Republic of Armenia. Using the analysis of the global trends, academic literature and expert opinions, we described how to transform the education system into a single free space, which enables the development of a country’s intellectual human capital in the context of digitalization. In this case, internationalization and digitalization (as well as their interconnection) act as both tools and conditions for the development of the modern education system. We created a model demonstrating the links between social sectors based on the development of the educational environment with intellectual human capital at its core. In conclusion, we suggest how to solve the problems facing the education system. Educational specialists participating in digitalization can use the research results in order to improve the educational processes and policies of the Republic of Armenia.
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Author A. A. Grebenyuk,Nowadays, the technological factor plays an increasingly important role in the development of the global labour market. The widespread introduction of automation in the production of goods and services decreases the demand for labour and increases structural unemployment. Undoubtedly, such trends will affect the demand for labour in the Russian labour market. The paper measures the demand of the Russian economy for foreign labour force in the context of innovations, increase in the technological factor, and transition to the digital society. The Russian Federation is a world leader in terms of the total number of foreign workers in the labour market. However, in terms of labour productivity in the national economy, Russia lags far behind developed countries. In this regard, it is necessary to consider how further technological development and growth of labour productivity will influence the demand for external labour force. The statistical analysis of time-series, extrapolation and modelling allowed forecasting the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) and the growth of labour productivity until 2030, as well as determining the supply and demand balance in the Russian labour market. The paper demonstrates two prognostic models assuming that the average annual growth rate of the Russian GDP will either remain 2.6 % (the first model) or gradually increase from 2.5 % to 3.5 % (the second model). The research results show that, in the next decade, the demand for foreign labour will significantly decrease. Th e obtaine d findin gs can be used f or creati ng vario us scenari os f or the developme nt of regional labour markets, as well as transformation of regional social and migration policies.
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The article discusses how to ensure stable employment in single-industry towns. The Russian labour market has changed significantly due to the transition to a digital society, which transforms both communication technologies and the motivation of labour behaviour. A widespread introduction of non-standard forms of employment has both positive effects and negative risks. To minimize such risks, it is necessary to find mechanisms to increase the economic and social security of standard and non-standard employees. For examining precarious employment, we used studies of foreign and Russian authors, focusing on the characteristics of employment in single-industry towns. Despite the variety of conditions, which are necessary for the socio-economic development of single-industry towns and forms of employment, we hypothesise that it is possible to develop a unified approach, combining standard and non-standard employment. We demonstrated that the situation, on the labour market in single-industry towns remains tense. In such towns, the number of employed population is decreasing, while their working and employment conditions are getting worse. Thus, we suggest developing the policy of employment management in single-industry towns using a system of measures aimed at forming balanced standard and non-standard employment. At the regional level, the research results can be applied for elaborating proposals for reducing tension in labour markets of single-industry towns.
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Author Yu. S. Pinkovetskaya,Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are not sufficiently developed in Russia, which is largely due to significant gap between the wages of SMEs employees and the wages of workers from other enterprises. Thus, it is essential to examine factors that influence the wages of SMEs workers. The study assesses the influence of various regional socio-economic factors on the wages of employees in small and medium-sized enterprises. The considered factors include the unemployment rate, income of inhabitants, and regional budget expenditures. The paper investigates the relationship between the average monthly wage of SMEs employees and subsistence level in each region. The model uses the official statistics for 82 Russian regions obtained in 2015. The assessed three-factor power regression model describes the dependence of the average monthly wage on specific indicators of the unemployment rate of economically active population, average monthly income, budget expenditures per inhabitant in each region. The density function of normal distribution was used to analyse the ratio of wages of SMEs employees to the regional subsistence level. The article demonstrates a link between wages of SMEs employees and the three studied factors, proving that wages increase with a decrease in unemployment rate and growth of inhabitants’ income and budget expenditures. T


