The aim of the article is to study the paradigm of regional development, the importance and the need to integrate social components in the assessment of the level of socio-economic security of the region. The analysis of regional development theory shows that the evolution of the region’s theory moves in the direction of increasing the role of the society and factors of economic development. This correlates with the concept of the present study which increases the role of the society from the previously adopted subsystem in the economic security system to the equivalent of the social component in the socio-economic security. Often prevailing “economic” approach to solving the problems of social and economic security of a region is undoubtedly justified by the crucial importance of the economy for the territories. The threshold and critical values of certain indicators of socioeconomic security, beyond which destructive processes threaten the economy and the society, are analyzed. The authors note that achieving of the threshold values of security indicators demonstrates the need for immediate intervention by the authorities to overcome the undesirable tendencies. The basic methodological approaches to modeling and forecasting the socio-economic security of the region are systematized. The authors prove that it has to occur in an integrated manner, i.e. with the analysis and accounting of all aspects of the scope of the research, as well as in systematic manner taking into account the interrelations and interdependence of regional development. At the end of the research, a conclusion is formulated: the reasonable set of methods and opportunity to adapt them in short terms for new tasks in the conditions of a quickly changing environment of regions are necessary for the solution of various tasks of the analysis and the evaluation of socio-economic security.

In March 2017, after the adoption of the Russian Federation Economic Security Strategy until 2030, the need for strengthening the security of the subjects of the Russian Federation including macro-regions became relevant. In this aspect, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation deserves special attention as it is a strategically important not only for economic, but also the national security of the country. Therefore, at the present stage of the state development, the substantiation of the special measures for the stimulation of the macro-region’s development to ensure its economic security is a relevant and priority task. The authors have analysed the intermediate results of some priority development areas since their creation in 2014. We have concluded that not enough time has passed to estimate whether this mechanism was effective or not in stimulating the regional growth and development of the business. Therefore, despite the traditional financial indicators of investment efficiency, we have included the estimation of quantitative change of one productive indicator depending on the change of a number of the parameters influencing this indicator in the assessment of the efficiency of priority development areas. We have estimated this quantitative change by means of the instruments of correlation and regression, and trend modelling. To apply this approach, we have designed a dependency model of the index of industrial production of Primorsky Krai as one of the indicators of the Economic Security Strategy on revealed factors, which cause the growth or decrease of this index. The economic interpretation of the model outputs consists in the following. When investments into fixed capital increase by 1 million rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region grows by 0,9 %. When the indicator of the real monetary income of the population increases by 1 thousand rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region decreases by 1,36 %. Trend forecasting has allowed to define such indicators as the investments into fixed capital and the real income of the population continue to change, the index of industrial production will show a steady downward trend for three next years. This proves that the policy of management of priority development areas in Primorsky Krai is inefficient. The research has concluded that from the perspective of ensuring the economic security of the macro-region, the creation of priority development areas in the Arctic will be effective only when all shortcomings of its functioning are eliminated. It is defined on the basis of the analysis of the corresponding experience of the Far East. High-quality forecasts will contribute to a positive impact from the creation of priority development area not only on the socio-economic sphere of the Arctic, but also on the strengthening the economic security of the macro-region in general. The results of the research can be used for the regional governance, monitoring of regional economic security, as well as for the increase in the scientific validity of state decisions.