The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy) and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies) and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population) depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions.

The article presents estimates regarding the scale of changes arising from the mass introduction of electric vehicles. The relevance of this paper is determined by the increasing demands for the environmental cleanliness of transport energy sources. It is obvious that in the future alternative fuel vehicles will crowd out oil fuel transport. I propose an original approach to the economic evaluation of the alternative resources’ use in transport taking into account regional conditions and initial data’s uncertainty. It allows comparing new technologies in transport and choosing the most efficien t option s fo r powe r suppl y of passengers and freight vehicles in the country’s different regions. The main feature of the proposed model is the combination of optimization and simulation methods based on the Monte Carlo technique. The study identifies the trends in the dynamics of motorization and the structure of energy resources in the transport sector and assesses the possible consequences of the electric vehicles’ introduction in Russia. It also includes the results of experimental calculations using various combinations of expected conditions and forecasting prices in accordance with the demand for motor fuel in major macro regions of Russia. The article has demonstrated that the economic efficiency of the use of alternative fuels and energy in transport will depend on regional characteristics, in particular, on the dynamics of changes in prices for energy resources. The proposed methodological approach and the results obtained can be useful in studying the problems of the power industry development.