Over the past two years, Russia has become the world leader in grain exports and intends to maintain growth rates. The authors enter into polemics with scientists who estimate the export of grain as the success of the agrarian economy. The purpose of the study is to find arguments for proving that the current model of the food market formation is erroneous. This model is based on the export of grain in combination with the import of the food with high added value. Our hypothesis is that the export of grain abroad was the result of low demand in the domestic market, which is due to the structural deformation of agricultural production. The study is based on the works of scientists in foreign trade policy (D. Ricardo, F. List, B. Ulin, S. Witte, D. Mendeleev). Statistical data, include the period before the embargo on food (2012–2014) and after it (2015–2016). In the conditions of inflation, preference was given to the indicators of the physical volume of output. The situation on the food market is complicated by a decrease in consumer demand and a fall in real incomes of the population. The imposition of an embargo on food imports reoriented imports to other countries. We propose measures of state regulation of the agro-food market: the introduction of export duties on grain and export subsidies for products with high added value. The research results can be used to develop mechanisms for regional economic policy in the agro-food sector.

The article is aimed at assessing the results of the protectionist policy in the agro-food sphere. The consumer food market depends on the import substitution in agriculture. Apparantly, it is erroneous to build a modern model of the agro-food market on the basis of export of cheap agricultural raw materials (grain) and import of expensive commodities. I found evidence to support this hypothesis in the works of foreign and domestic scientists. As a method I use the tools of statistical analysis. The empirical base of the study is represented by statistical material on export, import and domestic production for the period from 2012 to 2017 both in the country and in a typical region in the context of foreign trade (Ryazan region). The results of the study have showed the imbalance and irrationality of Russian export, import, domestic production and consumption. Since August 2014 agricultural producers have received several preferences for the growth of production: an embargo on food imports, government support and the weakening of the national currency. On the other hand, consumer demand decreased due to rising prices and lower incomes. The outstripping rise in food prices and the increase in the share of food expenditures in household budgets reflect an uneven state of the market. A detailed analysis of the situation in the regional markets has shown that the decline in consumer demand and saturation of local markets with imported products leads to an escalation of the problem of domestic products sales. The results of import substitution policy at the regional level should be measured in terms of economic access to food and per capita consumption. As a tool for the regulation of agro-food markets I propose to use the model of optimal placement of agricultural production. The results of the study can be applied in the development of state economic policy for regulating agro-food markets.