In the article, the theoretical and economic aspects of the category “security” are considered; the distinction between philosophical and socio-economic approaches to the understanding of social security is drawn. From the point of view of the system approach, the place of social security for national security protection is determined. The theoretical content of the category “social security” is shown; in the authors’ treatment, the specifying concepts such as “social risks”, “danger”, “threat” are given. For the purpose of risks identification (deviations) and the revealing of the factors of inefficient financing, the methodological tools for the assessment of the social security of a region are proposed. These tools are based on the integrated assessment of the regional socio-economic indexes and the indexes assessing the budgetary financing of the territory. The methodical approach offered by the authors is based on the detection of dependencies between the social and financial security of a region. As estimates, the indicators reflecting the level of social security in the territory of residence are chosen: income, expenses of the consolidated budget of a region, growth rate of gross regional product, rate of natural population growth, level of unemployment, population share with the income below living level. This approach is approved on the example of Perm Krai and Sverdlovsk region; the regularities, the favourable and adverse periods for social security of the region are revealed. The received estimates are ranged depending on a temporary log of growth (fall), elasticity and sensitivity to the budget financing. The results of the assessment have shown that, from the point of view of social security protection, Perm Krai has entered a stage of deep recession, which started in 2012. Similar tendencies are observed in the Sverdlovsk region. Nevertheless, considering both a visible variety and the dominating influence of Perm Krai and Sverdlovsk region on the social and economic development of the Volga and Ural Federal Districts respectively, the given comparison is of scientific and practical interest.

The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

To formalise the assessment of risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence presents a relevant issue. This study aims to define the economic security in the structure of the system of the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence and to develop a classifier of risks. We consider the economic security as one of the needs for meeting which the welfare aims. The risk assessment includes three stages. At the first stage, we calculate the welfare of individuals and the territory. At the second stage, the authors determine the coefficient of variation to select indicators that will characterize the risks to the welfare. The third stage assumes the assessment of these risks, which reduce the welfare. The regional economic system is considered as a multidimensional stochastic system, which can be modelled as a vector random variable. The components of this variable generally are mutually correlated. The formalization of the assessment of risks to the welfare is based on this interpretation of the regional economic system. As a result, the authors highlighted the main threats to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence. We have selected risk factors with high coefficient of variation, which indicates that the selected indicators have a high degree of variability. The research evaluates risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence assessing the probability of the occurrence of crisis states for the regions of the Ural Federal District. The probabilities of the states pre-crisis 1 and pre-crisis 2 for all these regions are sufficiently high. It can indicate that the general social and economic state in the regions of the Ural Federal District is unstable. The findings can be used to develop an effective risk management system at the regional level.

Increasing the budgetary potential is an important factor for the socio-economic development of a region. The level of the regional budget capacity influences the budget services delivery to the population, which makes the research topic relevant. The methodology of the assessment of the budgetary situation in regions is the scope of the study. The subject-matter of the research is the socio-economic relations arising from the use of the budget capacity of a region. The hypothesis of the research is that the regional budget’s situation reflects the use of the budget capacity of a territory in the current conditions. We consider the various definitions of «budgetary potential» category. We propose our own interpretation of the budgetary potential as a set of financial resources of a territory, which, under the optimal conditions, can be used for the realization of budget functions to achieve strategic and tactical targets for the development of a region. Our methodology allows to estimate the regional budget’s situation on the basis of the indicative analysis. Further, we subsequently determine the degree to which the budgetary potential of a territory is used. We have classified the selected indicators into five groups. These groups of indicator estimate the certain area influencing the regional budget’s situation. For each indicator, we have set thresholds according to the standard values or average values for Russia. The calculations for each group of indicators have allowed to define the budgetary situation of regions. On the basis of these cluster evaluations, we propose to classify territories by the degree of using the budgetary potential. Under this method, we have analyzed of the state of the budgets of the Ural region. The received integrated estimates have allowed to rate all the territories and determine the degree of using the budgetary potential. We have concluded that in the Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk regions, there is an optimal budgetary situation and, as a result, a high degree of using the budgetary potential. The received results can be applied by the authorities when developing and implementing the programs for the socio-economic development of the territorial subjects of the Russian Federation. They can be also applied for both the assessment of budgetary situation and the diagnostics of the quality of the regional financial management.

Currently, the socio-economic crisis and tension in external economic environment significantly complicate the task of strategic planning of regional socio-economic development. However, this task is crucially relevant. Its solution requires a multiaspect assessment of regional socio-economic situation. This assessment should take into account the impact of numerous factors, possible “traps”. We propose to use a composite indicator “Index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area” to assess the socio-economic situation in a region. Using the method of correlation analysis, we selected 6 key indicators: natural population growth rate, mortgage arrears, total unemployment, percentage of the population with incomes below the subsistence level, ratio of budget spending on education to the gross regional product (GRP), ratio of budget spending on healthcare to the gross regional product (GRP). The value domain of each indicator is divided on 7 crisis zones. This allows assessing the socio-economic system situation. We have substantiated the behaviour of regional socio-economic system on the example of the Ural Federal District in the period from 2000 to 2017. Furthermore, we have made projections for the period from 2018 to 2021. The dynamics of four indicators from six demonstrates reveals a post-crisis recovery. However, the direct impact on two budgetary indicators can increase the general welfare in a region. Comparing the dynamics of the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area with GRP shows that we can use the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area to forecast the dynamics GRP. The research results can be applied for developing measures to enhance the socio-economic development of regions.